Schwab Market Update
Early Direction Cloudy on Packed Day of Earnings
Published as of: April 29, 2025, 9:09 a.m. ET
| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® index |
5,528.75 |
+3.54 |
+0.06% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® |
40,227.59 |
+114.09 |
+0.28% |
| Nasdaq Composite® |
17,366.13 |
-16.81 |
-0.10% |
| 10-year Treasury yield |
4.23% |
+0.01 |
-- |
| U.S. Dollar Index |
99.21 |
+0.20 |
+0.21% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® |
25.18 |
+0.03 |
+0.01% |
| WTI Crude Oil |
$61.00 |
-$1.05 |
-1.68% |
| Bitcoin |
$94,988.00 |
+$169.19 |
+0.18% |
(Tuesday market open) A five-day win streak for the S&P 500 index (SPX) is at stake, with markets under early pressure amid a host of earnings reports and few fresh developments in the trade war. Jobs and confidence data are due later, along with earnings from Starbucks (SBUX) and Visa (V).
Wall Street's comeback has the SPX on pace for just slight losses this month in what was once the worst April since 1932. "Buy the dip" sentiment returned the last two weeks, lifting the so-called "Magnificent Seven: heading into their earnings and putting the SPX about 14% above its April 7 low.
But if economic data continue to weaken, so could enthusiasm. Today brings two important reports soon after the open with the March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and April consumer confidence from the Conference Board. Analysts expect both numbers to fall from the prior month. Tomorrow kicks off earnings from four of the Magnificent Seven reporting this week, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META). The final day of April also features key inflation and economic growth data ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.
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Three things to watch
1. Shipping news: Global logistics company Flexport reported late last week that tariffs have already had a "significant negative impact on shipping volumes from China to North America, with 50% cancellations." The White House plans to ease the impact of auto tariffs by lifting some levies on foreign parts for U.S. vehicles made in the United States, Bloomberg reported. Separately, China confirmed overnight that there are no talks taking place between the two countries and said the U.S. should remove all unilateral tariffs if it wants to negotiate. The administration said it's making progress on trade deals with other countries, specifically mentioning India.
2. Inflation, GDP data up next: Tomorrow brings the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, an inflation metric closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Headline and core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy, are seen flat and up 0.1%, respectively, month over month. Also watch tomorrow for March personal spending data, which analysts see rising 0.4% monthly. This data may reflect people buying major items like cars and furniture ahead of expected tariffs. Despite recent soft manufacturing data, futures trading suggests almost no chance of a rate cut when the Fed meets next week. Fed policy makers said they'd need to see deterioration in labor to trim rates and are wary of tariff-driven inflation. Futures trading reveals less than a 10% chance of a May rate cut. Odds of a June rate cut are around 65%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "Although the door for a cut at the June meeting is open, we still expect the next cut to come sometime in the second half of the year," said Collin Martin, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "The fed funds futures market continues to prices in three or four cuts by year end. That seems too aggressive for us unless the labor market significantly deteriorates."
3. Consumers in focus as Starbucks, Visa report: The latest word from consumers arrives this week with earnings from credit card companies like Visa and some of the biggest fast-food firms including Starbucks and McDonald's (MCD). Early tidings from consumer-facing firms like PepsiCo (PEP), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Chipotle (CMG), and Southwest (LUV) haven't countered worries that consumers may be prepping for a possible recession. Spending tends to slow first when people worry about their jobs or lose money in the stock market. From a company perspective, some consumer firms say tariffs will raise costs, and that prices on store shelves will climb accordingly. Shelves could also empty if companies can't source goods from China. Shipments from that country are already down, according to media reports. Others said they expect weaker demand, including airlines that trimmed capacity, though domestic passenger traffic appears to be holding up for now. Chipotle already sees a "slowdown" in consumer spending. Domino's saw a drop in quarterly sales at U.S. stores. However, Royal Caribbean (RCL) said cruise demand remains buoyant.
On the move
- General Motors (GM) fell 2.3% as the company pulled its 2025 guidance due to the uncertain tariff outlook. It also delayed some of its planned share buybacks and postponed its earnings conference call until Thursday. "Because the original guidance didn't include impact from tariffs, prior guidance can't be relied upon," said Paul Jacobson, the company's chief financial officer, according to Bloomberg. "We will update when we have more information on tariffs." Quarterly earnings per share beat analysts' consensus.
- Coca-Cola (KO) climbed 1% early today as quarterly revenue slipped slightly less year-over-year than analyst had expected in what's been a tough market for snack food and soft drinks. Global unit case volume grew 2% during the quarter and earnings per share rose 5% annually. Sparkling soft drinks sparked growth, and the company reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance. Price increases helped the company's results.
- Foot Locker (FL) flattened in pre-market trading after rising more than 10% yesterday despite a lack of fresh news. Competitor Adidas held back on raising its 2025 guidance today, citing tariff uncertainty, Reuters reported.
- UPS (UPS) climbed 1.6% in pre-market trading after the package firm beat earnings expectations and said it intends to cut 20,000 jobs this year and shut more than 70 facilities, Barron's reported. The company also withdrew guidance due to what it called the "current macro-economic uncertainty."
- Pfizer (PFE) climbed slightly after quarterly earnings beat expectations and the company reaffirmed guidance, though it said the guidance doesn't reflect possible tariff impact. Revenue for the quarter came up a little short of analysts' expectations.
- Spotify (SPOT) dropped 5.8% in early trading as it expects active monthly users this quarter of 689 million, less than the 694 million analysts had expected, according to Bloomberg. Second-quarter financial guidance also disappointed, and a 10% first-quarter rise in monthly active users fell just short of analysts' expectations.
- Honeywell (HON) jumped nearly 4% today after beating analysts' earnings expectations and raising its full-year EPS guidance. The company plans to offset tariff impacts through targeted pricing moves, alternative sourcing, improved efficiency with materials, and using AI in engineering, Bloomberg reported.
- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), a telehealth company, saw shares rocket 36% ahead of the open after announcing a partnership with Novo Nordisk (NVO) to sell weight-loss drug Wegovy on its platform, Reuters reported.
- Royal Caribbean climbed 5.4% after raising guidance on strong cruise demand. Bookings in April were above the same period a year earlier, the company said in its earnings release, and bookings for 2025 "have remained on track" with "cancellation levels normal."
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose one basis point to 4.23% after falling to three-week lows yesterday. Late Monday, the Treasury Department said it expects to borrow $514 billion in privately held net marketable debt for the April-through-June and the July-through-September quarters. This looked bearish for Treasuries, as that amount was far higher than the Treasury Department announced back in February.
More insights from Schwab
Dollar decline examined: With U.S. tariffs up, many analysts had expected a firmer dollar. Instead, the opposite happened. The dollar is down about 10% from early-2025 highs versus other major currencies. "The dollar's drop has raised concerns because it coincided with a spike in U.S. interest rates—an unusual event," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, in her latest analysis on the greenback.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--100541" >Dollar decline examined: With U.S. tariffs up, many analysts had expected a firmer dollar. Instead, the opposite happened. The dollar is down about 10% from early-2025 highs versus other major currencies. "The dollar's drop has raised concerns because it coincided with a spike in U.S. interest rates—an unusual event," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, in her latest analysis on the greenback.
Resources for volatile markets
Turbulent market conditions can make anyone worried about their portfolio, and Schwab offers several perspectives that provide ideas to keep in mind at such times:
Market Volatility: What to Do During Turbulence
Bear Market: Now What?
Market Volatility in Retirement: Are You Prepared?
Navigating the Markets: Tariffs and Trade
Chart of the day
Data sources: Cboe. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Though it's too early to say things are running smoothly again with so much data and company earnings straight ahead, volatility has come down markedly since peaking above 60 for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX—candlesticks) back in early April. The VIX is now back near its 50-day moving average (blue line), though it's important to note that the 50-day is elevated compared with the long-term average near 20. Over the past few months, VIX has tested the 50-day a few times and typically bounced from that level. A lower VIX typically indicates less choppy trading ahead for the SPX.
The week ahead
Check out the Investors' Calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
April 30: March PCE and Core PCE Prices, first estimate of Q1 GDP, Bank of Japan interest rate decision, and expected earnings from Caterpillar (CAT), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), MGM Resorts (MGM), and Allstate (ALL).
May 1: April ISM Manufacturing PMI® and expected earnings from Eli Lilly (LLY), CVS Health (CVS), Mastercard (MA), McDonald's (MCD), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), U.S. Steel (X), Roku (ROKU), Amgen (AMGN), and MicroStrategy (MSTR).
May 2: April nonfarm payrolls and expected earnings from ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).
May 3: Expected earnings from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B).
May 5: April ISM Services PMI® and expected earnings from Palantir (PLTR).