Upbeat music plays.
[Screen shows “Weekly Market Outlook with Jeffrey Kleintop”]
[Jeff holds up a sign with the words “Stocks Final Four”]
From President Trump’s big tariff deadline to the U.S. monthly jobs report and comments by Fed Chair Powell, I’m Jeff Kleintop with 90 seconds on what our brackets look like this week as the quarter ends and the market’s drivers compete.
This week marks the close of the first quarter
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a bracket, with branches labelled Diversification and Mag7]
when the U.S. exceptionalism of the Mag Seven gave way to outperformance by the global diversification of international stocks. But the Magnificent 7 had a little bounce last week while international stocks slid. We will be watching to see if there is more of the revenge of the Mag 7 this week or if international stocks close out the quarter with even wider outperformance.
The uncertainty over the impact and details
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a bracket, with branches labelled Tariffs and Earnings]
of Trump’s April 2nd tariff deadline on major U.S. businesses contrasts with analysts’ confidence in double-digit earnings growth this year for S&P 500 companies—although those estimates have been steadily lowered in recent weeks.
Forecasts for Friday’s U.S. jobs report
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a bracket, with branches labelled Confidence and Employment]
for March has economists projecting 135,000 jobs were added during the month with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1%. That stability in hiring contrasts with the decline in confidence among business leaders that we are likely to see in this week’s ISM reports for March.
Also on Friday, with the interest rate futures market
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a bracket, with branches labelled Inflation and Rate Cuts]
still pricing in two more cuts by the Fed this year, Fed Chair Powell speaks at a business journalism conference in Virginia after last week’s February PCE inflation report showed core inflation picking back up to 2.8%.
NCAA March Madness is a reminder of how it can be notoriously hard to predict winners; historically a team’s ranking has meant nothing after getting down to the Elite Eight. So, there will likely be some upsets leading to market volatility as these and other market drivers square off this week.
Thanks for watching.
[Jeff holds up sign saying "Thank You"]
Important disclosures displayed.
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